A Futurist’s Perspective: 10 Things to Know About the Next 10 Years (Part Three)
By Richard Worzel
This is the final instalment of a three-part article looking at how the next ten years will dramatically change your life and almost everything in it. Read Part One and Part Two.
7. Growing political and social turmoil
In addition to the potential for new crises and turmoil in the global economy and global markets, there is also the potential for increased financial and political turmoil in the developed countries. Not only is the U.S. federal government, among other nations, running up unprecedented amounts of debt, increasing its financial vulnerability, but many of America’s individual states are in a squeeze. This is happening not just because of the Great Recession, but also because they’ve been too generous with pensions and benefits to their retirees over the years. For example, by 2018, the state of Illinois will have to pay $14 billion a year for benefits for retired state employees, which is more than a third of the state’s total revenues, and could bankrupt it, much as happened to General Motors.
And in a larger sense, there are going to be growing conflicts between public sector retirees, who mostly have decent pensions, and private sector retirees, who mostly don’t yet will be paying taxes to support their civil servant neighbors. As well, there will be conflict between aging boomers, who will vote for generous Social Security payments and unlimited health care, and their children who will be paying taxes for benefits they don’t believethey will ever receive. Accordingly, the political situation in most developed countries will likely get worse – hard as that is to believe!
8. Climate change accelerates
Within 10 years, the debate on climate change will be effectively over except for those who are willfully choosing to ignore evidence. It’s already clear from changes happening in the polar regions that climate change is happening, and climatologists are astonished by how fast they are occurring. Change may come not only more rapidly than we expect, but faster than we can adapt. I suspect we’re in for a wild ride, and that will almost certainly force changes on us that we will find difficult. We will also find some changes that are helpful, such as longer growing seasons in parts of NorthAmerica – particularly the northern tier of Midwestern American states and the Prairies of Canada – If we get the right rainfall patterns, which may also change. But it’s also clear that many of the changes will be harmful to us and the way we live.
I also suspect it is going to force us to make significant changes to our lifestyles, imposing Green Economy ideals even on disbelievers. This doesn’t have to be a bad thing, because another name for “pollution” is “waste,” and by decreasing waste, we can actually increase profits.
9. The energy revolution
We’ve already seen with natural gas that new technologies can revolutionize even well-established industries – but that’s not going to be enough. If you look at the long-term cost of oil over the past 150 years, you can see that, with the added demand from rapidly developing countries like China and India, coupled with the sheer volume of energy we need to add each year just to maintain our lifestyles, we will push up the price of oil at a remarkable rate – at least for the next several years, until we come up with good energy substitutes.
Now, let me reassure you – we are not running out of oil, because almost three-quarters of the Earth’s surface is covered in water. We haven’t discovered or exploited the vast majority of the oil under that water. But we are running out of cheap oil. The BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is an example of the problems ahead. More expensive petroleum will provoke us to develop new ways of using energy more efficiently – so called “negawatts” – as well as developing new sources of energy. It’s astonishing what demand for a critical resource can do, but it’s going to take time to displace oil from the center of our energy equation.
10. The purpose of life
When people ask the question, “What is the purpose of life?”, they are starting off in the wrong direction with an improperly formed question. This is not a question at all, but a statement: life is purpose. Without purpose, there is no life.
But this raises a different question: What’s my purpose? And this is a question that can’t be answered by looking out there, but inside yourself. I got this from a wise man, Viktor Frankl, in a book called Man’s Search for Meaning. And here’s the question he posed that you should ask yourself: “It’s not a matter of what you can expect of life, but what can life expect of you?” It may be that you think your purpose is to bring home a paycheck, and that’s certainly important. But I would urge you to stop and think about what life can expect of you, what you feel is your calling, and then be guided by this sense of purpose.
The decade ahead is going to be radically, remarkably, dangerously different than any period you’ve lived through or have experience with. And it’s going to offer opportunities that you cannot now anticipate. If you don’t have a clear sense of where you are going and why, and are not prepared for the challenges we face and the opportunities ahead, you will be devastated by what’s to come.
Someone always benefits from change. Let it be you.
Richard Worzel is a plenary speaker at BC HRMA’s 49th Annual Conference, April 14-15, 2011. He will be presenting Dark Clouds & Silver Linings: Human Resources Management in BC’s Future. For more information on this and other sessions, please refer to bchrma.org/conf2011.
Leading forecaster and futurist Richard Worzel challenges organizations to examine the future and plan for the dizzying changes to come. A chartered financial analyst, he is also a best-selling author and frequent media commentator on business and economic trends. www.futuresearch.com/futureblog/