By Ian J. Cook  

That we are in a crisis was evident from all of the speakers who took the podium at the Sheraton Wall Centre. With consumer spending falling, housing starts collapsing, commodity prices tumbling and the forest industry on hold, there was little good news for the global economy or even B.C. It is clear that we are facing an unprecedented economic slowdown which will have a game changing effect on our economy.

This deep impact was the source of optimism for B.C., which is well positioned relative to other provinces in Canada and around the globe. With strong Canadian banks, limited government borrowing, our economy of local, national and international players, our proximity to Asia and the work being done to develop B.C. as a gateway for pacific area commerce, indicators are that B.C. is well positioned to take advantage of the recovery.

Dr. Anne Golden, CEO of the Conference Board of Canada, shared her current assessment that the U.S. economy will bottom out by the end of 2009 and we will see the beginnings of a slow recovery in 2010. Dr. Golden also forecast no rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or total economic activity for B.C. this year, with gains in the one or two per cent range returning for 2010. All the speakers on the economic situation reinforced the bonus B.C. will receive from hosting the games in terms of money flowing through our economy, generating jobs and spending, as well putting B.C. on the map for future visitors and business people alike.

Ellyse Allan, The CEO of GE Canada spoke about future opportunities that B.C. can explore. She was very positive about the area of clean energy – electricity generated from hydro, solar, wind or biomass sources. The need for energy security is a compelling driver of fiscal stimulus and policy the world over. B.C. is well placed due to its innovative and entrepreneurial organizations as well as a reasonable (if time consuming) regulatory framework. Allan also highlighted a key strategy for generating cash flow in the short-term which was to study in detail the fiscal stimulus packages being deployed by the U.S., Canadian and provincial governments. Her logic was simple: when spending dries up you need to find who has money and what they are spending it on. She also reinforced the need for rigorous operational discipline suggesting that all lines of business were reviewed to ensure they were viable and being delivered as effectively as possible.

Thomas D’Aquino, CEO of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives talked about the continuing volatility and uncertainty in the global economy. When asked to identify signs that the fall had stopped, he spoke about the banks and their need to wash through the bad credit and find the certainty that there was no more bad debt hidden in off-balance sheet lending or other instruments. This may happen soon if the U.S. government sets up a “bad” bank to hold these assets or it may take longer.

One further item of note was how few HR-focused people were in the room. Two of the three big challenges identified at the summit namely productivity and the labour shortage related to people and yet these areas were represented by CEOs and politicians. At our lunch tables and coffee breaks, many of the key strategic questions were being debated and as a team we were struck that HR was not in the room. Something to change for next time.

All the speakers reinforced that it was hard to predict the future with the markets and conditions so volatile. Those brave enough to put a date on the recovery added several caveats about the impacts unforeseen changes would have on their forecasts. However all of the speakers did reinforce that this slowdown will pass and the most important thing for all of us to focus on at this time is how to be positioned for the recovery. As the title says, now is not the time to waste a good crisis and the smart organizations are reviewing their operations to find efficiency and focus. They are scanning the globe for markets and opportunities and they are ensuring their talent is aligned, prepared and motivated to ride this short term rollercoaster and be ready to take advantage of the recovery when it comes. BC is well placed to take advantage of the clear global opportunities doing so will require us to fill our labour gaps and enable our employees to work smarter.

Ian J Cook is the director of HR knowledge and research at BC HRMA. Ian is using his global HR consulting experience and business knowledge to grow a function which delivers informative, relevant and timely comment.