By Jock Finlayson

In the last issue of PeopleTalk, I provided an overview of the B.C. government’s 2024 Labour Market Outlook. The report presents an assessment of labour market trends, some regional supply and demand projections, and an analysis of predicted job openings by occupation and by industry over the next decade.

In this column, I’ll take a closer look at labour demand by occupation.

As a reminder, the government foresees 935,000 cumulative job openings in the province through 2024, with approximately two-thirds of these due to retirements and other exits from the workforce and the rest resulting from economic growth. The job vacancies are distributed fairly evenly across the decade.

Future Outlook by Occupation
A key advantage of the new Labour Market Outlook is the rich occupational detail. The report contains projections for 500 occupations at the four-digit National Occupation Classification (NOC) level.

In overall terms, the largest numbers of job openings will occur in sales and service occupations; business, finance-related and administrative occupations; and management positions. In fact, these three categories alone will account for more than half of all job openings in the coming decade. Significant labour demand is also expected in trades and transportation occupations, representing 14 per cent of all projected job openings.

Opportunity Indicator Narrows Focus
The above categories are quite broad and encompass many specific occupations. To provide more precise information about where job openings will be most plentiful, the report includes a newly developed “Opportunity Indicator Ranking.” It is a composite index made up of a few key variables related to future job opportunities across the various occupations.

Based on the Opportunity Indicator Ranking, a list of 100 occupations with the “greatest opportunity” was developed for the Labour Market Outlook report.  Many of these fall under one of the following general headings: management, health care, skilled trades, education, and finance-related.

In the management occupations segment, retail and wholesale management positions top the list, with more than 27,000 openings by 2024. Next in the management category is insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers, with 9,400 openings. Restaurant and foodservice managers are third, with 7,900 vacancies, followed by construction managers (7,200).

Other, non-management occupations that score well in the Opportunity Indicator Ranking include: financial auditors and accountants (11,700 cumulative job openings), information systems analysts (7,600), college and vocational instructors (7,200), university professors (6,600), and computer programmers and interactive media developers (6,200).

Among occupations that typically require a college education or apprenticeship training, administrative officers (19,600) and administrative assistants (16,400) are likely to be in high demand, along with carpenters (11,200) and accounting technicians/bookkeepers (11,000).  Over the next decade the projections also point to a need for 10,700 new cooks and 4,300 chefs in British Columbia.

Drilling down further, the four-digit occupation with the largest absolute number of predicted job openings is retail sales persons (33,000 openings). This reflects the large size of the retail sector together with the industry’s huge workforce.  Transport truck drivers will also be much sought after, with 15,500 vacancies through 2024.

Education Key to Future Market
What can be said generally about the educational and training qualifications needed to fill future openings across the spectrum of occupations in B.C.? According to the province’s labour demand/supply model, 36 per cent of job openings through 2024 will require a completed university degree or “significant” relevant work experience. Another 42 per cent will call for a college or apprenticeship qualification. For the remaining 18 per cent of vacant positions, a high school diploma and/or a modest amount of “occupation-specific” training will suffice.  Over time, a rising share of all jobs in the economy are demanding some kind of formal education/training beyond high school.  For young adults lacking such credentials, the labour market is becoming a less hospitable place.

Full STEM Ahead in BC
In B.C.’s increasingly knowledge-driven economy, we see steady growth in the demand for technology and science-related skills. This is reflected in the revised Labour Market Outlook, which projects 70,000 job openings in technology and science occupations over the next ten years. Many of these will be in computer systems design and related fields as well as engineering, architecture and allied services. Others will be found in telecommunications, scientific and technical services, motion picture production and broadcasting, and the natural and applied sciences.

Strong employer demand for workers with educational qualifications to fill positions in these areas underscores the need to expand the capacity of the province’s post-secondary system to produce more graduates in “STEM” disciplines.

Jock Finlayson is executive vice-president and chief policy officer with the Business Council of BC.

(PeopleTalk Spring 2016)