By Kael Campbell

Could low oil and gas prices in Western Canada mean the end of talent shortages that have plagued Canada for the last decade? Will we see tens of thousands of workers streaming back from Northern British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan to fill the low-skilled job vacancies that have been keeping coffee shops closed in BC resort towns like Fernie and Whistler? How might this affect skills shortages in other industries? Is talent going to become available in other sectors?

Employment in oil and gas, as well as mining, has been hit hard by low commodity prices, affecting people from Vancouver to Tumbler Ridge to Newfoundland. As a result, the Canadian economy could lose as many as 185,000 direct and indirect jobs related to the oil and gas industry according to the latest impact assessment from the Petroleum Labour Market Information (PetroLMI) Division of Enform.

Applicant Market Shifting with Commodity Market
We’re already seeing a shift within the applicant market following 35,000 energy sector jobs lost in Alberta. An advertisement for an oil engineer now results in applications from 50 highly-educated, ready-to-work individuals. Just one year ago, the response rate would have been in the single digits.

On the other side of the employment spectrum, businesses in Whistler and Fernie, BC, are raising the alarm over a lack of workers to fill their jobs in an exploding tourism market driven by a low Canadian dollar. This situation is further challenged by recent restrictions to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program.

Will we see workers transition between industries and move to where job vacancies are? For BC employers the answer is: not very likely. Over the past 10 years, there have only been three quarters where more people left Alberta than had migrated in from other provinces. Historically, even with a disruption in employment, the number of people who leave Alberta’s diversified economy is quite small.

Relocation Incentives/Assistance Lacking
Why don’t people move to where the jobs are? The truth is, it is too expensive and most employers offer little incentive. Of 850 jobs advertised on Whistler’s Craigslist, only one mentioned relocation assistance; the others made no mention at all of reimbursement or even a bus ticket. The costs of moving, visiting a location for interviews, and finding accommodation and house hunting make it a daunting task. For homeowners, selling a home and relocating costs tens of thousands.

Another way to view these job losses is to think about how the work will get done and the flexibility of the workforce. A family with two or even three incomes may choose to minimize the financial impact of a layoff by accessing Employment Insurance benefits until a similar position becomes available. One of the main alternatives to relocating or taking a lower paying position is to select self-employment by seeking consulting engagements as many HR professionals do.

Price Drops Mark Increase in Self-Employment
Canada saw a huge jump in self-employment the last time oil prices dropped, which was in 2009. Of the 44,000 who joined the ranks of the self-employed that year, 36,000 were women. Almost every year since, we see an overall increase in self-employment in Canada; this year we may see the number of self-employed women grow to over a million for the first time ever.

Employers need to continue to invest in their employment branding and marketing and recognize that—despite rising unemployment statistics—candidates will be considering their options carefully, even while sending out dozens of resumes. It’s still a challenge to screen in the serious, qualified, top talent who will make the jump, and to help an organization find them a self-employed, HR consultant may be of assistance. Above all else, making an offer worth considering, even if it involves relocation, is definitely the primary part of the solution.

Kael Campbell is president of Red Seal Recruiting Solutions Ltd., a lead trades and industrial management recruiting employment agency in Victoria. Red Seal services clients across Canada, including the mining, utility, manufacturing, construction and industrial sectors.